The Stockdale Paradox

Here’s what they learned from former Admiral and Prisoner Of War on dealing with unknown.

Admiral Stockdale was a POW for 8 years and had an interesting opinion on why he made it through 8 years of captivity when others didn’t.

Most anyone facing unknown and turbulent circumstances looks to figure out when those circumstances would end. That’s what most prisoners did. They came up with reasoning on why they would be released on certain dates.

“Thanksgiving! Of course they will bring us home by Thanksgiving!”

But then Thanksgiving would come and go and the POW’s holding onto that hope would spiral into a depression. Then, grasping at hope, they started to believe that Christmas would be when they would go home. Their hopes would go up and then dashed, over and over. Many gave up. “They died of broken hearts,” the admiral said.

I actually watched this play out on an episode of “Alone” where contestants try to outlast each other in frigid wilderness completely alone until one person is left.

One guy was sure no one else could have lasted as long as he had. He told his cameras that a medical team was coming but he believed it was a ruse to announce that he was the last man standing. When that happens, a loved one emerges from a hidden spot to surprise the contestant and announce they have won.

He kept telling the cameras how excited he was and how he couldn’t wait to see his wife. Finally the medical team shows up and he has a huge smile on his face. The team starts checking him out but his eyes are darting around looking for his wife. The smile slowly dissipates and finally the team leaves.

He is broken. He was sure it was over. He was sure he was going to see his wife. It didn’t happen.

The videos afterward were hard to watch as the man completely changed. He was literally balling. If I recall, he didn’t make it 24 more hours before he tapped out of the show. He had created a false hope and when it didn’t come true, he lost the only thing he had.

Stockdale took another approach.

He admitted the brutal reality that he was in, which included he had no control on any external factors. What he did control was his belief that he would be out one day and he would be stronger because of that time. He controlled the only thing he could at that moment and accepted everything else as it was.

“You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”

If you look up his story you will see a quote about how the optimists were the ones who perished. I think he’s an optimist as well but the direction of the optimism is the difference.

The Stockdale Paradox
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