For awhile I was reporting on the numbers, statistics and prognostications that I found quite often. It is seductive to report the good news about our market. Makes us feel good. But the numbers are interpreted by whoever compiles them and compared to other numbers that someone else put together and there is at least a little bias or expectation by that person. One of the things Freakonomics did was look at research just a little different and see other outcomes, proving that it isn’t so straightforward to predict the future.
When RMLS says that average time on the market is 84 days, do you really believe that on that 84th day you will receive an offer? No. They should include the number of price drops and the percentage off of list price too. But even then it might not show seller concessions because that is private information as deemed by RMLS. So we go back to numbers and interpretations. See where it gets sticky?
The Case-Shiller Index came out and said Portland is up 0.3% March to April according to Ron Ares. We use the numbers of the past to guess the future. Few people do this really well besides Warren Buffet. The experts are really good explaining what happened but even then they disagree. There are even people who believe that the earth is flat.
I also on’t like that NAR and a couple of real estate companies are pushing that this is the “best time to buy a house”. It may be true but it sounds disingenuous coming from them. Even if it was true would you believe a car salesman that said a used car was only driven by a little old lady to church but that she was atheist?
These are historic lows in interest rates and if they rise you might regret it but you can’t time the market. Many people bought in to the market at the top because they felt they were missing out (watching the numbers). Many people are skipping the market so they don’t get trounced (watching the numbers).
If it fits your budget, do it and if it doesn’t, than don’t. In stocks for the typical person is that you add a little every month regardless of the market. You will ultimately buy at some dips and some highs but in the end you average in a good price hence the name “dollar cost averaging”. So buy when it fits right, not just because you are supposed to buy which sounds silly but it happens more than you think.
