As anyone who has visited here with any kind of regularity will know, I am not a fan of prognostications. Someone high up in the banking industry told me that by th eend of the year rates should be right around 7%. They are not. He says that rates should actually be lower now as the 10-year bond is at a historic low.
For years everyone has been crowing that interest rates will go up and they haven’t by much and are back down. There are so many outside factors, specifically the government, that it is hard to say what will happen.
So why am I giving some credence to Jerry Johnson of Johnson Gardner when he says that September 2009 will be the bottom? The first reason is because I have heard him speak and so far he has given good reasons why we haven’t fallen as hard as most other cities. The second reason is that 9/09 is not far away and if doesn’t happen it will hurt his credibility with his clients who need his projections.
Would I bet the “house” on it? No. He uses the now famous Case-Schiller Index which has become the go to numbers chart for the real estate industry. His forecast is Portland specific.
I have four buyers right now. Two need to sell their homes and one needs to decide what to do with their existing home. All remarked at the low interest rates which may help fuel some activity. The buyers are those that I would consider to have “secure” jobs with no fear of being laid off.
Of course time will tell and we can only hope there will be some stability in the housing market as it is important for the health of the economy right now.
